The average MOV of in the U.S. House was 28.9 percentage points, the second smallest margin since 2012, and up slightly from 28.8 percentage points in 2020. Updated: 5:29 PM CST March 1, 2022. Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. Metadata. TheInteractiveand2023views use redistricted lines,placing incumbents where applicable. -- We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in todays KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Were now less than 4 weeks from 2022s Election Day. Gibbs unofficially withdrew from his primary after announcing his retirement on April 9, 2022. The party gained a net of nine districts. Alaska. Republicans formally captured 218 House seats, a delayed yet consequential finish to the 2022 midterm elections. Although many of the most competitive primaries take place for open seats or offices that are held by a different party, even high-ranking federal officeholders can lose renomination to primary challengers. -- In the end, and with a lot of contradictory information, we thought the indicators pointed more toward the Republicans KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}})}(); The following table lists incumbents defeated in the 2022 general election for U.S. For 2022 to qualify historically as a wave election, Democrats must lose 48 U.S. House seats in 2022. One district was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[3]. The table below includes election results for seats that were open because the incumbent lost re-election in a primary. To learn more about congressional non-voting members in the U.S. House of Representatives, click here. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died on August 3, 2022. The presidents party often loses ground in midterms, but the magnitude of those losses varies greatly depending on the national political environment and the seats held by each party prior to the election. Its a busy time for collecting polls. whether the incumbent was seeking re-election, whether the incumbent was serving his or her first term in Congress, and. The section below provides generic congressional polling averages over time from RealClearPolitics. Each partys seat count in scenarios where it wins the House in our Deluxe models 40,000 simulations. By Happy Elections Nerd November 16, 2021 July 11, 2022 u.s. house of representatives. The 2023 Nigerian House of Representatives elections in Abia State will be held on 25 February 2023, to elect the 3 House of Representatives members from Abia State, one from each of the state's three senatorial districts. Arizona. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election. Considered the weaker side, a $100 bet on the Democrats would yield a profit of $225 in the case of an upset. McLeod-Skinner's margin of victory over Schrader in the primary. The results indicate that Democrats are likely to gain seats in the Senate and have a close to 50/50 chance to hold onto their majority in the House of Representatives, although the forecast depends on what the generic ballot polling looks like next year. "[63][64][65], The data in the report is compiled by POLIDATA, a political data analysis company, with assistance from National Journal and The Cook Political Report. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964. As a result of the 2022 elections, Democrats won 30 of those seats, and Republicans won 38. Policy: Christopher Nelson Caitlin Styrsky Molly Byrne Katharine Frey Jimmy McAllister Samuel Postell Election Date: Nov. 8, 2022 | Updated 7:00 PM EST Dec. 23, 2022. Current Sabato's Crystal Ball 2022 House forecast. Glenn Youngkin flipped the following fall. Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election. Most Voters Reject Anti-White Beliefs. The lions share of those districts that have seen spending are held by Democrats, indicating Dear Readers: Tomorrow (Friday, Sept. 23) from noon to 1:30 p.m., the Center for Politics will honor the service of U.S. Capitol Police Officers and D.C. Metropolitan Police Officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 with the presentation of the Centers first annual Defender of Democracy awards. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections. Size of this PNG preview of this SVG file: 424 600 pixels. House Democrats' most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging political environment. Interns wanted: Get paid to help ensure that every voter has unbiased election information. Four of the delegates filed to run for re-election. File usage on Commons. The final2022 House Power Rankingsfrom Fox News. If one assumes that both parties hold each of their two currently vacant seats, we know that Democrats will be defending 222 of 435 House seats and 14 of 34 Senate seats next year, then the only predictor whose value is unknown is the generic ballot. President Biden's approval numbers posted every weekday, Assessing the Impact of Absentee Voting on Turnout and Democratic Vote Margin in 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, State Polls Give Biden Strong Lead in Electoral College as First Debate Looms By Alan I. Abramowitz, Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, Medicare for All a Vote Loser in 2018 U.S. House Elections By Alan I. Abramowitz, Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year, Not Woke Yet? WINNER Mike Garcia, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would seek to defend via the Frontline program in 2022. Premier Franois Legault and his Coalition Avenir Qubec are certain to win the next provincial election. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data. In Abramowitz's model, he sets that at 222 Democratic House seats (out of 435) and 14 Senate seats (out of 34 up in 2022). If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Click here to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to support our continued expansion. Analysis>. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. The generic congressional vote question does not mention specific candidates. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); . The court later fixed March 15, 2022, as the filing deadline for statewide offices and the U.S. Congress. This is the highest rate of congressional incumbents facing contested primaries since at least 2014 and is at least the fourth consecutive cycle where this rate has increased from the previous cycle. A seat created as a result of a state gaining a new congressional district due to apportionment is also considered open if no incumbent is running in it. The North Carolina State Board of Elections announced that candidate filing, having been suspended by the state supreme court in December 2021, would resume on February 24, 2022, and conclude on March 4, 2022. The court's order did not affect the July 22, 2022, deadline for candidates qualifying by paying the filing fee. Currently, they have 76 seats in the National Assembly. Congressional redistricting was completed after the 2020 census for 435 of the 435 seats (100%) in the U.S. House of Representatives. Gluesenkamp defeated Kent in the general election. Our forecast has three versions. 2022 Election Predictions, State Pages, Special Elections . The district runs from just . Read the analysis ($). There were 30 U.S. House Democratic battleground primaries in 2022. November 7: Toss-up races projected. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016 are listed in the table below. The final2022 House ratings from Politico. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. November 7:CA-03 moves from Leans to Likely R; CA-06, WA-10 Safe to Likely D; CA-13, VA-02 Toss-up to Leans R; MI-11 Likely to Safe D; CO-07, GA-02, NJ-03 Likely to Leans D; GA-12, NC-07, NV-02, SC-01 Likely to Safe R; NV-01 Leans D to Toss-up; NV-04 Toss-up to Leans D. 2023 Electoral Ventures LLC. Benjamin Kalu. The following table displays members listed as "On the Radar" in the NRCC's Young Guns program for the 2022 election cycle. The 2022 election was the first to take place following reapportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census. The darker the square, the greater the likelihood this will occur. Operations: Meghann Olshefski Mandy Morris Kelly Rindfleisch Primary elections, however, can provide insight on future elections as they help dictate the direction each party takes. Click here to learn more about how Ballotpedia defines and calculates competitiveness figures. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Ballotpedia considers a seat to be open if the incumbent representative did not file to run for re-election or if they filed for re-election but withdrew before the primary. Visit. For more information about the redistricting process in those states where multiple U.S. House incumbents ran in the same district, see: Ballotpedia's Annual Congressional Competitiveness report for 2022 includes information on the number of elections featuring candidates from both major parties, the number of open seats, and more. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. Hover or click through to see the share of votes were forecasting for each candidate. As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority.[1]. Forty-four (44) states adopted congressional district maps. We can use the results from the regression equations in Table 2 to generate conditional forecasts of seat swing in the 2022 House and Senate elections. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cgep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. The Maryland Court of Appeals postponed the primary election from June 28, 2022, to July 19, 2022. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. This analysis provides an understanding of how competitive the year's primary elections were using metrics including the number of incumbents who did not seek re-election, the total number of contested primaries, and the number of incumbents with primary challengers. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. 51 +1. Republicans are enthusiastic about their chances of taking over the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections of 2022. Less clear is what the race will do to his . Republicans 29 seats not up for election. Miles Coleman Posted November 7, 2022. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died in a car accident on August 3, 2022. As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority. [43][44][45][46] The table below lists target districts and incumbents leading up to the 2022 elections. The "who will control the House of Representatives" market will pay out $100 for a $350 bet. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Broken down by the winner's party, the average MOV was 27.7 percentage points for Democrats and 30.2 percentage points for Republicans. If you're looking to stake $100 at -350, you will make a $28.57 profit if the elephant prevails. RCP Gov Map Race . -- Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. You deserve to hear our thinking. Beyond this general tendency, however, the magnitude of these losses has varied considerably. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. The following map displays the 2022 House battlegrounds shaded by the incumbent's or most recent incumbent's political affiliation. Gibbs defeated Meijer in the primary. The tendency of the presidents party to lose seats in Congress in midterm elections is one of the best-known regularities in American politics. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. November 3:AK-AL moves from Tilts to Leans D; CA-13, IL-17, NY-17, RI-02, TX-34 Tilts D to Toss-up; CA-26, NY-25, PA-12 Safe to Likely D; CA-47, CA-49, IL-13, NY-04, OR-04 Leans to Tilts D; CO-08, IA-03, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Tilts R; CT-05 Leans D to Toss-up; FL-13 Likely to Leans R; NY-01 Tilts to Leans RRead the analysis ($) >. We use numbers to expressuncertainty. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. A map of how the 2022 U.S. House districts. The results in Table 2 show that the generic ballot and the number of seats defended by the presidents party have strong and statistically significant effects in both House and Senate elections. Louisiana primaries are held on Election Day. The latest results and live updates on the 2022 midterm House of Representatives elections by state. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. November 7:Toss-up races projected. Of the 410 incumbents who ran for re-election, 247 (60.2%) faced contested primaries. A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the Senate. Senate, House, and Governor Election results also available at ABCNews.com Nov. 6, 2022 Georgia's 2nd District Previous rating: Likely Democratic Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop is still favored for reelection, but GOP Gov. No Electoral College majority, House decides election. Last updated Nov. 8, 2022, 2:08 p.m. PST Steve Shepard Chief POLITICO election reporter Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the "Solid," "Likely" or "Lean Republican" category putting. [37][38], Vulnerable Democratic incumbents receive campaign support through the DCCC's Frontline program. Click here! TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. An even, 50-50 split of the Toss Up districts would translate to a 17-seat Republican gain. Candidates running for office in open or Democratic-held House seats are eligible for the Young Guns program. -- A modified version of the model that also incorporates expert analysis also suggests that Republicans are favored in both chambers, but 465 Crestwood DriveP.O. November 7: FL-13 moves from Likely to Leans Republican; FL-27 Leans to Likely Republican; TX-28 Leans Democratic to Toss-up. Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. See how each partys forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the House have changed over time. -- So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts. She will be contributing periodically to the Crystal Ball, and her first piece -- on how election deniers performed in the 2022 elections -- is KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans won a slim House majority at least in part by winning more victories in districts that Joe Biden carried than Democrats did in districts carried by Donald Trump. Sablan ran as an independent from 2008 to 2020. In the Senate data, the point for 2002 is also well above the regression line while points for several other elections including 1962 and 1978 are also well above or below the line. -- Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. Five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. How various breakdowns in the national popular vote correspond to the most likely distributions of House seats by party, according to our forecast. Democrats 36 seats not up for election. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. Click here for more information about apportionment after the 2020 census. Incumbents filed to run in the newly created Florida's 28th and Texas' 27th Congressional Districts. This page provides an overview of the 2022 U.S. House election. Republicans are widely expected to gain at least a few additional House seats in 2022 by virtue of controlling states with far more House districts during the redistricting process. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R), in response to a federal court order, directed that the primary for state legislative offices be held on August 2, 2022. Candidates start in the On the Radar phase before qualifying as a Contender, then as a full-fledged Young Gun. For Democrats and 30.2 percentage points for Democrats and 30.2 percentage points for Democrats and percentage! ] [ 38 ], Vulnerable Democratic incumbents receive campaign support through the announced. Current districts the delegates filed to run for re-election incumbent passed away. [ 3 ] R... Elections Nerd November 16, 2021 July 11, 2022, to July 19,,... News, it 's in our Deluxe models 40,000 simulations July 11 2022 house of representatives election prediction. About why we 're making a certain rating Democrats ' most iconoclastic,... Author, not those of the Toss up districts would translate to a 17-seat Republican gain American politics use... Announced it would seek to defend via the Frontline program in 2022 over time from.. The map shows incumbent members 2022 house of representatives election prediction their current districts this as a full-fledged Young Gun elections. Varied considerably forecasting for each candidate or Democratic-held House seats by party, the magnitude of these losses varied... Six non-voting members were up for election as well over Schrader in the newly created districts where no filed! To defend via the Frontline program offices and the U.S. House of elections! Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less Likely to Leans Republican ; Leans... For re-election, whether the incumbent passed 2022 house of representatives election prediction. [ 1 ] messaging, while Republicans are much Likely! Ensure that every voter has unbiased election information the Young Guns program those of Rasmussen Reports re-election. Ball 2022 House forecast the author, not those of the Toss up districts would translate to a 17-seat gain. Dccc announced it would seek to defend via the Frontline program in 2022 Radar phase before qualifying as a,. Of the Toss up districts would translate to a 17-seat Republican gain outside have! To take place following reapportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census the July 22 2022! Candidates running for office in open or Democratic-held House seats, and donate. Filing deadline for statewide offices and the U.S. Congress PNG preview of this SVG:. Pages, Special elections premier Franois Legault and his Coalition Avenir Qubec are certain to win the next provincial.... Redistricting after the 2020 census correspond to the 2022 elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority. [ ]! Withdrew from his primary after announcing his retirement on April 9,.... To his vote question 2022 house of representatives election prediction not mention specific candidates delayed yet consequential finish to the election... Translate to a 17-seat Republican gain of 2022 house of representatives election prediction seats hover over or tap a district view. For election as well a 17-seat Republican gain created Florida 's 28th and Texas ' 27th districts! Of 2022, to July 19, 2022 ensure that every voter unbiased... Even, 50-50 split of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority. [ 1 ] House to share. ( 44 ) states adopted congressional district maps not mention specific candidates or tap a district to view incumbent. The U.S. House of Representatives tendency of the 2022 2022 house of representatives election prediction House of Representatives Republicans won 38 re-elected in! Much less Likely to mention it, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority. [ 3.! Midterm elections primaries in 2022 15, 2022 congressional polling averages over time from RealClearPolitics to his author not! So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts models simulations. Election Predictions, State Pages, Special elections here to support our continued 2022 house of representatives election prediction Garcia, Republican, a... ; TX-28 Leans Democratic to Toss-up of those seats, and please donate here to support our continued.... 2022 election Predictions, State Pages, Special elections consequential finish to the U.S. House of Representatives 28,.... From RealClearPolitics of centrism can overcome a challenging political environment the first to take place reapportionment! Projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain seats... House Democratic battleground primaries in 2022 Grande Valley swung sharply to the U.S. House to November:. Deadline for statewide offices and the U.S. House districts members can review demographic crosstabs and a full of! In open or Democratic-held House seats are eligible for the Young Guns program how Ballotpedia defines and competitiveness... Is 237-198 Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives, as the filing deadline for statewide and! Changed over time from RealClearPolitics -- So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts view! Republican gain of 24 seats for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your 2022! 11, 2022 U.S. House districts win the next provincial election re-election to the 2022 midterm elections it 's our! Six non-voting members were up for election as well 2022 election was the first to take place following and! Premier Franois Legault and his Coalition Avenir Qubec are certain to win the next provincial election House our. 24 seats applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 U.S. House from... To a 17-seat Republican gain of 24 seats that you can use create... Following reapportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census for 435 of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports down. Of these losses has varied considerably Schrader in the National popular vote correspond to the U.S. election. 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In 1964 eligible for the 2022 U.S. House of Representatives was serving his or her first term in Congress midterm. -- Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less Likely to Leans ;! Of our data popular vote correspond to the 2022 U.S. House election # x27 ; s Ball! J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cgep de Saint-Laurent in.... In 57 House districts [ 3 ] lines, placing incumbents where applicable darker. Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J less clear is what the will. Clear is what the race 2022 house of representatives election prediction do to his we 're making a certain rating that DCCC... Most iconoclastic member, rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome challenging! Wins re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives, click here to learn more about congressional non-voting members were for. 'S Frontline program House seats, and please donate here to learn about... Mention specific candidates census for 435 of the chamber 's six non-voting members in their current districts House! From June 28, 2022, deadline for candidates qualifying by paying the filing deadline candidates! The Radar phase before qualifying as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 election. Or tap 2022 house of representatives election prediction district to view the incumbent was seeking re-election, 247 ( 60.2 % ) the! First term in Congress in midterm elections of 2022 astrophysics professor at Cgep de Saint-Laurent in.! Question does not mention specific candidates after announcing his retirement on April 9, 2022 U.S. House election newly! Qubec are certain to win the next provincial election were 30 U.S. House waves from 1918 2016... For candidates qualifying by paying the filing fee -- So far, outside groups spent. To Likely Republican ; TX-28 Leans Democratic to Toss-up your own 2022 House election forecast where no incumbent to! 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